Mark of the Wulfen or Power Weapon?

There has been a lot of discussion around the internet about having a Power Weapon vs. having Mark of the Wulfen in your Space Wolf squads. The discussion has, for the most part, come to the conclusion that power weapons are better against marines and the other MEQ's (marine equivalents), but that Mark of the Wulfen was better against weaker units like Orks and Imperial Guard. This particular enrty was inspired by an article written by Adam of Space Wolves Grey (http://space-wolves-grey.blogspot.com), the best site on the internet as far as I''m concerned for all things Space Wolves. In this case we're going to look at Grey Hunters. What makes this problem so "pure" is that they both cost the same (15 points), so there is no need to weigh cost/benefit when simply trying to decide which one is better...just benefit.

I like to use fractions of a "kill" when doing my comparisons. My basic method for comparison is to calculate the percentage of a single hit causing a wound (to include armor saves being taken) and multiplying that percentage by the number of attacks being made. Please understand that this is not a true scientific method for making comparisons, but it will give us a number that is very close to the true mathematical average...and is easy for the average 40k player to understand (I say "40k player" instead of "person" because the average 40k player is going to be smarter than the average person). Rending simply added an additional step in my calculations by taking into account that a certain percentage of wounds (aka those that caused a wound by rolling a 6) would be rending as opposed to a normal wound. This is why rending is particularly comparatively good vs. high toughness models...a larger percentage of your wounds caused will be rending (or 100% of them if you need a 6 to wound!).

Here is the average number of wounds caused by a Grey Hunter with a power weapon in the first round of combat. Note that these calculations include the fact that the opponent won't get an armor save due to the power weapon.

Power Weapon 3 Attacks
Guard Kills: 1.33
Ork Kills: 0.75
Marine Kills: 0.75

Here are the numbers for wounds caused by a Grey Hunter with the Mark of Wulfen in the first round of combat. Take note that I've included the rending bonus by the method I mentioned earlier.

MoW Attacks (with rending)
Guard Kills:
3A: 1.00
4A: 1.33
5A: 1.67
6A: 2.00
7A: 2.33
8A: 2.67
1.83 Avg Kills

Ork Kills:
3A: 0.67
4A: 0.89
5A: 1.11
6A: 1.33
7A: 1.56
8A: 1.78
1.22 Avg Kills

Marine Kills:
3A: 0.42
4A: 0.56
5A: 0.69
6A: 0.83
7A: 0.97
8A: 1.11
0.76 Avg Kills

It is important to note that one thing the traditional "mathhammer" method of making decisions doesn't take into account is that 6 attacks that hit on a 3+ is not the same as 8 attacks that hit on a 4+ Although they both "average out" to 4 hits using the traditional method of (% chance of success) * (# of attempts), the true statistical average will be different for both of them. It also doesn't take into account that there is a 0% chance of the former scoring 7 or 8 hits. That being said, our method here is still a good tool (albeit not a perfect one) for making decisions and we are able to say with some certainty that Mark of the Wulfen is better than a power weapon in each of these three cases. It is decidedly EVEN better against Plague Marines, Marine Bikes, or even Carnifexes. It is NOT better against striking scorpions or incubi (elite power armored Dark Eldar for those of you who weren't playing 40k in 2001).

Next week we'll take a look at the true effectiveness of the Wolf Standard, another option for Grey Hunters. In the mean time, you comments are appreciated. Is there anything out there you'd like to see a statistical analysis on?